AFC Playoffs: Divisonal Round

By Brett Miller


Ravens vs. Patriots

How will Brady perform in the face of pressure?

 The Ravens have given the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady Patriots led teams more postseason problems than any other AFC franchise. With a 2-1 record against them the playoffs, they’re a popular upset pick this weekend. The biggest question going into this game will be how the Patriots offensive line holds up against the Ravens d-line pressure. Where the Ravens excel in quarterback pressure, they lack in overall secondary coverage. Tom Brady is one of the game’s best when it comes to performing under pressure. He’ll take his knocks, but it won’t shake him and he’ll stand tall and make plenty of plays in face of that Raven pressure.

 On the flip side, Joe Flacco has established himself as a force to be reckon with in the playoffs throwing for 13 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last five postseason games. His recent play in the postseason is reminiscent of Brady’s earlier years. With the Patriots secondary being the strength of the defense, the Ravens will rely heavily on the running attack with Justin Forsett who averaged over five yards a carry this season. Flacco loves throwing deep and has had great success in doing so. If the Ravens can catch the Patriots filling the box to slow the ground game, they have the ability to hurt them deep.

 I think the Patriots will neutralize the Ravens pressure with a 1-2 punch of Shane Vereen and LeGarrette Blount on the ground, and a heavy dose of Rob Gronkowski through short to medium pass plays. Brady doesn’t need much time to make that style of passing attack be very efficient, which is why they’ll sneak out of Foxborough with the hard fought victory.

 My Pick: Patriots 23-20

 

Colts vs. Broncos

The Colts past and present lock up on Sunday

 The headline match up in this game is no surprise, the quarterbacks. Peyton Manning will be facing the franchise he experienced so much success with, and the guy who made him expendable, in Andrew Luck. Though the Broncos enter with a balanced attack, it’s no secret what the Colts game plan is, throw the ball, and throw it often. They ranked 5^th in the league in pass to run ratio, opting to pass on over 61% of their offensive plays.

 Dan ‘Boom’ Herron leads a ground game that ranked 22^nd in rushing, going up against a Broncos rush defense that ranked 2^nd in the league. Safe to say advantage Broncos in this aspect. But, as previously mentioned the Colts are all about the aerial assault, as they were the top ranked passing team in 2014. Luck’s favorite target is T.Y. Hilton, who he’ll hit on short, medium, or deep passes. Hilton was targeted 31 times this year on passes of 20+ yards, catching 15 of them and scoring on 5. Hilton’s ability to take whatever the defense gives him and use that to the max is crucial to the Colts success. He has his work cut out for him facing a Broncos defense that ranked 9^th against the pass.

 When the Broncos have the ball they bring the league’s 4^th ranked passing attack and 15^th ranked run game against a Colts defense that ranked in the middle in both categories. Peyton’s favorite target is Demaryius Thomas who will have his hands full with Colts cornerback Vontae Davis. Davis statistically had the best season of any cornerback in the league, allowing just a 38.8 QBR in passes thrown his way, giving up no touchdowns with 4 interceptions. If Davis can shutdown Thomas, the Colts still need to figure out how to stop Emmanuel Sanders who has 15 catches for 3 touchdowns on passes of 20+ yards this year. CJ Anderson will handle the workload on the ground averaging just under 96 yards a game since week 10, facing a defense that gives up 119 a game.

 Statistics say the Broncos are primed for a win. The eyeball test says otherwise, is it just me or have the Broncos lately just been….off. Peyton doesn’t look like classic Peyton physically, he’s smart enough to make the passing offense effective, but the arm strength doesn’t seem to be there. Andrew Luck on the other hand is one of those quarterbacks looking for that signature playoff win to catapult him into the elite conversation. This is that game.

 

My Pick: Colts 38-31