Colts vs. Patriots
The Colts enter this game after winning a rather underwhelming game, becoming the latest team to upset Peyton Manning in the postseason...it's a long list. The Patriots enter winning an absolute thriller over they're top postseason foe in Baltimore. Andrew Luck got his signature playoff victory and Tom Brady came back from TWO 14-point deficits to get here. End result is both teams are here.
The Colts enter with the NFL's top passing attack, and a versatile yet fumble prone run game headed by Daniel 'Boom' Herron. The Patriots bring the ninth ranked run defense, so if Herron is to be a factor, I'd look for him to do so in the short passing game.
It's anyone's guess who'll get the bulk of the carries for the Pats on Sunday. Should it be Jonas Gray, Shane Vereen, LeGarrette Blount, or that guy you talked to at the bar last night, the fact is the Patriots run game has been almost non-existent since punishing the Colts for 246 yards in week 11. That week the Colts brought the pressure, blitzing Brady 16 times. He responded by throwing two touchdowns and was never sacked.
If the Colts decide to do the same on Sunday, they'll play right into Bill Belichick's hand. As proven last weekend against the Ravens, the Patriots thrive with a no-huddle pass heavy attack. I don't see the Colts 11th ranked defense slowing the Pats too much. Should they shore up that run defense, they still have no answer for Rob Gronkowski who caught four passes for 71 yards and a touchdown against them in week 11, he was targeted 13 times against the Ravens last week. Nobody stops Gronk.
On the flip side, the Colts have a passing attack that can strike deep at any given time. They have a chance to pull the upset should that happen....and it will. The Colts won't have their way with the Pats secondary, but they will have their success with the deep ball to keep it close. That being said, I see a few Luck interceptions coming out of that strategy.
Luck and the Colts will prove they belong in this game, they'll give the Patriots all they can handle and more, but it won't be enough to keep Brady from winning his sixth AFC title.
My Pick: Patriots 38-34
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