Colts vs. Patriots
The Colts enter this game after winning a rather underwhelming game, becoming the latest team to upset Peyton Manning in the postseason...it's a long list. The Patriots enter winning an absolute thriller over they're top postseason foe in Baltimore. Andrew Luck got his signature playoff victory and Tom Brady came back from TWO 14-point deficits to get here. End result is both teams are here.
The Colts enter with the NFL's top passing attack, and a versatile yet fumble prone run game headed by Daniel 'Boom' Herron. The Patriots bring the ninth ranked run defense, so if Herron is to be a factor, I'd look for him to do so in the short passing game.
It's anyone's guess who'll get the bulk of the carries for the Pats on Sunday. Should it be Jonas Gray, Shane Vereen, LeGarrette Blount, or that guy you talked to at the bar last night, the fact is the Patriots run game has been almost non-existent since punishing the Colts for 246 yards in week 11. That week the Colts brought the pressure, blitzing Brady 16 times. He responded by throwing two touchdowns and was never sacked.
If the Colts decide to do the same on Sunday, they'll play right into Bill Belichick's hand. As proven last weekend against the Ravens, the Patriots thrive with a no-huddle pass heavy attack. I don't see the Colts 11th ranked defense slowing the Pats too much. Should they shore up that run defense, they still have no answer for Rob Gronkowski who caught four passes for 71 yards and a touchdown against them in week 11, he was targeted 13 times against the Ravens last week. Nobody stops Gronk.
On the flip side, the Colts have a passing attack that can strike deep at any given time. They have a chance to pull the upset should that happen....and it will. The Colts won't have their way with the Pats secondary, but they will have their success with the deep ball to keep it close. That being said, I see a few Luck interceptions coming out of that strategy.
Luck and the Colts will prove they belong in this game, they'll give the Patriots all they can handle and more, but it won't be enough to keep Brady from winning his sixth AFC title.
My Pick: Patriots 38-34
Sunday, January 18, 2015
NFC Conference Championship Preview
Packers vs. Seahawks
It's said that defense and a running attack win postseason football games. Even in a time when passing stats reign supreme, last season Seattle proved this notion still holds true when they obliterated the highest octane offense the league has ever seen in Denver during the Super Bowl last year. But when Aaron Rodgers is your quarterback, you always have a chance.
The Seahawks enter with the top ranked defense once again, and face the NFL's top scoring offense in the Packers who put up 30.4 ppg. It's a dream matchup for NFL fans. The Packers strength is through the air where they average 266 yards a game. They face a Seahawks secondary giving up a measly 185 a game. Ok, well the Packers bring a nice balance with a ground attack that gains 119 yards a game....the Seahawks only give up 81 per game....hmm.
Offensively the Pack have their work cut out for them. But again, anytime you have Aaron Rodgers, you have a chance. Could it be though that Rodgers absolute dominance at Lambeau Field have skewed his overall production? The guy hasn't thrown a INT at home since 2012, are 9-0 there this year, and score 17.2 more points at home then on the road. Sunday's matchup is not at Lambeau Field. It's in the doghouse of the league's most tenacious defense, and a place where Russell Wilson is 25-2.
Seattle leans heavy on Marshawn Lynch and the run game, ranking tops in the NFL. Going against a Packer rush defense that ranked 23rd and surrendered 123 in the divisional round to Dallas, advantage Seahawks. The one advantage statistically for Green Bay is in their pass defense, which ranked 10th, going against the Seahawks who don't have a true number one wide receiver. That being said, Wilson does not take unnecessary chances when throwing, being more than ok punting and letting that defense go to work.
When it comes to the front lines, Rodgers and Wilson both have scrambling ability, Rodgers takes only 1.9 sacks a game to Wilson's 2.6. Rodgers is still battling a calf injury that clearly hampered him for three quarters last weekend. Wilson is healthy and has rushed for over 100 yards in a game three times this year.
Seattle's defense gelled at the right time and again looks like an absolute force. Add that to the punishing running attack of Lynch and a quarterback who doesn't lose at home and those are just too many factors for even Aaron Rodgers to overcome.
My Pick: Seahawks 30-17
It's said that defense and a running attack win postseason football games. Even in a time when passing stats reign supreme, last season Seattle proved this notion still holds true when they obliterated the highest octane offense the league has ever seen in Denver during the Super Bowl last year. But when Aaron Rodgers is your quarterback, you always have a chance.
The Seahawks enter with the top ranked defense once again, and face the NFL's top scoring offense in the Packers who put up 30.4 ppg. It's a dream matchup for NFL fans. The Packers strength is through the air where they average 266 yards a game. They face a Seahawks secondary giving up a measly 185 a game. Ok, well the Packers bring a nice balance with a ground attack that gains 119 yards a game....the Seahawks only give up 81 per game....hmm.
Offensively the Pack have their work cut out for them. But again, anytime you have Aaron Rodgers, you have a chance. Could it be though that Rodgers absolute dominance at Lambeau Field have skewed his overall production? The guy hasn't thrown a INT at home since 2012, are 9-0 there this year, and score 17.2 more points at home then on the road. Sunday's matchup is not at Lambeau Field. It's in the doghouse of the league's most tenacious defense, and a place where Russell Wilson is 25-2.
Seattle leans heavy on Marshawn Lynch and the run game, ranking tops in the NFL. Going against a Packer rush defense that ranked 23rd and surrendered 123 in the divisional round to Dallas, advantage Seahawks. The one advantage statistically for Green Bay is in their pass defense, which ranked 10th, going against the Seahawks who don't have a true number one wide receiver. That being said, Wilson does not take unnecessary chances when throwing, being more than ok punting and letting that defense go to work.
When it comes to the front lines, Rodgers and Wilson both have scrambling ability, Rodgers takes only 1.9 sacks a game to Wilson's 2.6. Rodgers is still battling a calf injury that clearly hampered him for three quarters last weekend. Wilson is healthy and has rushed for over 100 yards in a game three times this year.
Seattle's defense gelled at the right time and again looks like an absolute force. Add that to the punishing running attack of Lynch and a quarterback who doesn't lose at home and those are just too many factors for even Aaron Rodgers to overcome.
My Pick: Seahawks 30-17
Saturday, January 17, 2015
Bringing Back A Familiar Face Could Fill A Void For Twins
There are pros and cons to bringing Santana back |
Santana won two Cy Young awards and never finished lower than seventh in voting during that stretch to go along with two top ten MVP finishes.This is the guy the Twins should bring back to the twin cities and here’s why:
The Twins are in dire need of a lefty starter.
With Phil Hughes coming off a career year where he finished seventh in Cy Young voting, he'll be the number one starter, behind him offseason signee Ervin Santana. Beyond those two it's a big question mark for a franchise that has been tormented with bad pitching for the last four years. They have a pool of potential but unproven talent with Kyle Gibson, Alex Meyer, and Trevor May. Ricky Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey will be looking to get healthy and bounce back from a forgetful 2014 season. What the aforementioned all have in common is they're right-handed pitchers. Tommy Milone stands as the lone left-hander. Should he struggle as he did last season or get injured the Twins have no where else to go.
The Fans.
The Twins need to bring excitement back to a fan base that has dwindled in attendance each year since opening Target Field in 2010. Fans in Minnesota have been told to have patience for years. With a farm system loaded with young talent it's understandable. But when is the payoff? Four years of 92-plus losses will irritate even the most loyal fan, regardless of the young talent the front office boasts. We already saw the team bring back Twins great and fan favorite Torii Hunter. Bringing back a taste of past glory and dominance within the division could at least bring more fans out to have the chance to see a couple of Twins legends before they call it a career. Everyone loves a farewell tour.
Leadership.
Joe Mauer is undoubtedly the star of the team, his clubhouse leadership though has raised doubts. During his tenure with the Twins, Torii Hunter was a star and team leader. Hunter like Santana is well past his prime, and though Hunter's contributions on the field might not be what they once were, the knowledge and leadership he can provide to young hitters is endless. Santana could be that guy for the pitching staff.
Financial Situation.
The Twins are historically on the lower end of the payroll (24th in 2014). Ervin Santana was the big offseason signing. Twins General Manager Terry Ryan makes a couple low risk, high reward signings every year, already making one with Hunter this offseason. Some have paid off....others not so much. Pelfrey has been nothing short of a bust since donning a Twins uniform, and Nolasco never got on track last season while battling an elbow strain, but the verdict is still out on him.
What did pay off were the additions of Carl Pavano who became the ace for a short time, and most recently with Hughes. Santana won't put up Phil Hughes numbers, but the Twins wouldn't have to pay him Phil Hughes money either, as he'll likely be offered nothing more than a minor league deal.
The Verdict.
Santana's availability is due to his struggles with injuries. With the Mets Santana had surgery twice on his shoulder, then tore his achilles with Baltimore last spring. His body is breaking down and he’ll be 36 years-old come opening day.
Of course the Twins aren't the only team who might be interested in Santana's services. Gerry Farley of the Dallas Morning News noted the Rangers, Brewers, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Yankees are all keeping an eye on his progress. The progress began on Tuesday when he pitched two scoreless innings in the Venezuelan League.
For what it's worth, look at what Santana did when healthy post-Twins era. Third in Cy Young voting in 2008, an all-star in 2009, and posted a 2.98 ERA in 2010 before missing all of 2011. Then he threw the first ever no-hitter in Mets history before injuries took away the rest of 2012, 2013, and 2014.
Injuries and father time are working against Johan Santana, but it might be time for the Twins to bring back a familiar face so both can restore their past glory.
Monday, January 12, 2015
Twins Take Similar Route In Hiring New Manager
The Minnesota Twins don't like change. Since the hiring of Tom Kelly in
1986, they've only had only three managers, with all three having noticeable
similarities. Kelly, Ron Gardenhire, and Paul Molitor each landed their first managerial
job with the Twins, replacing the man that they worked under while polishing
their craft. All three have major league playing experience, albeit Molitor’s
career certainly dwarfs the other two. Finally, Molitor like his predecessors,
will be taking over a club banking on its young talent.
Offensively in the American League the Twins ranked 7th in team BA and TB,
5th in OPS, and drew the 2nd most walks. Many of the guys credit their
offensive development to the tutelage of Molitor. Their struggles offensively
came in timely hitting where they were 2nd in runners left on base and finished
under the league average in sac flies and bunts. Under Molitor I fully expect
the offense to continue to improve those numbers.
Molitor's biggest challenge comes in the pitching department. From
2011-2013 the team ERA was second to last in the AL until last season when they
finally broke through and finished dead last. In all four of those seasons they
ranked last in strikeouts, though the fact that they also were near the top in
fewest walks issued tells me that the problem wasn't with guys not throwing strikes
as much just not having guys who were capable of getting strikeouts.
Molitor has already done away with pitching coach Rick Anderson, who held
that position since 2002. From '02-2010 Anderson's pitching staff had the third
lowest ERA in the league and issued the fewest walks. But, in recent years the
wheels had fallen off. Replacing him will be Neil Allen who was the Triple-A
pitching coach for the Rays from 2007-2014, during which time Tampa Bay’s young
pitching and overall player development keyed a long string of success despite
low payrolls.
Perhaps the biggest question surrounding Molitor will be how he handles
player injuries. During the Gardenhire run, in Minnesota you often heard the
argument that he 'coddled' his players too much, namely star Joe Mauer. The
fact is you could make a strong argument that the Twins weren't coddling their
players, but didn't allow them to fully heal or do enough to treat their
injuries.
How else do you explain why players who are seemingly past their prime, see
a resurgence when they go elsewhere? The short list for those guys include the
likes of J.J. Hardy, Francisco Liriano, and Justin Morneau.
Molitor's playing career early on was often marred by injuries, once he was
allowed enough time to fully heal up (aided by his subsequent move to DH), he
had some of the most productive seasons of his career. He knows how important
health is to a player in a grueling 162 game season.
What I would like to see in the Molitor era, is a more consistent everyday
lineup. Do away with the constant day or two rest periods that so many players
received under Gardy, and give them extended time off to fully heal, and come
back ready to make an impact.
Kelly and Gardy both experienced success early on. Kelly was hired in
September of 1986, 14 months later he was a world champion. In his first six
full seasons on the job, the Twins finished first or second in the division
four times, winning two World Series titles. We saw a similar trend during the
Gardy era, winning six division crowns and finishing first or second in seven
of his first nine seasons.
The fallout for both men was similar too. In eight of Kelly's final nine
seasons, the team finished no higher than fourth in the division. Gardy
finished no better than fourth in his last four seasons at the helm, losing
92-plus games in all four. While both men experienced plenty of success, be it
Kelly's postseason magic or Gardy's divisional dominance, by the end it was
obvious that a change had to be made.
No the Minnesota Twins don't like change, but a change is exactly what they
need.
Saturday, January 10, 2015
NFC Playoffs: Divisional Round
By Brett Miller
Panthers vs. Seahawks
Panthers vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks begin their quest to become the first repeat Super Bowl champ since the ‘05 Patriots by facing a team that failed to win half of their games this year. That being said, has there ever been a more daunting sub .500 team then the Carolina Panthers? They possess a defense that ranked 10th in the league. They have a quarterback in Cam Newton that struggles at times, yet makes plays at crucial moments with both his legs the cannon he call an arm. This is not your typical 12-4 team vs. a subpar 7-8-1 squad.
It's up to Kuechly to stop Wilson from taking over |
Cowboys vs. Packers
Murray is the Cowboys key to success Sunday |
My Pick: Cowboys 27-24
AFC Playoffs: Divisonal Round
By Brett Miller
Ravens vs. Patriots
Ravens vs. Patriots
How will Brady perform in the face of pressure? |
Colts vs. Broncos
The Colts past and present lock up on Sunday |
My Pick: Colts 38-31
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Vikings Head Into The Offseason: Young Defense Ready To Make It's Mark In 2015
By Brett Miller
All the talk of the about the Vikings this offseason will be about Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater. Shocker, a quarterback and a running back get the headlines, but what Vikings fans should be excited about is the direction of the defense. The Vikings went from having the 32nd ranked defense in 2013, to 11th in 2014. How could this be you ask. Was it a young defensive line that constantly pressured opposing quarterbacks all season long, was it a secondary that went from 31st in 2013, to 7th in 2014, or was it a linebacking core that got a shot in the arm with a young versatile playmaker wreaking havoc? Yes, it was all of these things, but to sum it up with one name, it was Mike Zimmer.
All the talk of the about the Vikings this offseason will be about Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater. Shocker, a quarterback and a running back get the headlines, but what Vikings fans should be excited about is the direction of the defense. The Vikings went from having the 32nd ranked defense in 2013, to 11th in 2014. How could this be you ask. Was it a young defensive line that constantly pressured opposing quarterbacks all season long, was it a secondary that went from 31st in 2013, to 7th in 2014, or was it a linebacking core that got a shot in the arm with a young versatile playmaker wreaking havoc? Yes, it was all of these things, but to sum it up with one name, it was Mike Zimmer.
The Vikings still need another cornerback though. Captain Munnerlyn was a nice addition, but at times reminded me of Chris Cook, where his tackling was atrocious, and his coverage while solid, didn’t make the play. The Vikings face a similar issue at safety. They are in need of a strong safety. It’s been a constant rotating door, this year’s participants were Robert Blanton and Antone Exume Jr. The free safety spot on the other hand is securely held by one of the leagues up and comers in Harrison Smith. Smith has the ability of two former Viking safeties mixed into one. He hits like Robert Griffith, but has a knack for the ball like the late Orlando Thomas. Smith in my mind was a pro bowl snub this past season with 93 tackles and 5 interceptions, compared to Seattle’s Earl Thomas who got the nod with 97 tackles, but just a lone interception.
Barr will be asked to fill Greenway's shoes |
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Vikings Head Into The Offseason: Optimism Reigns For The Offense In 2015
by Brett Miller
We’ll start with the offensive line where former first round pick Matt Kalil struggled mightily at times for the second straight year after a very impressive rookie campaign. After signing right guard Brandon Fusco to a 5-year, $24.25 million dollar contract, he was lost for the year after tearing a pectoral muscle in week 3 at New Orleans. Right tackle Phil Loadholt was lost for the season on the final drive of the game in week 12 against Green Bay, also with a torn pectoral. Right guard Charlie Johnson and replacement Vlad Ducasse were in and out with injuries of their own. Those injuries were only magnified when you consider the Vikings had a rookie behind center for all but three games this past year.
Then we have the Adrian Peterson story line. The game’s best running back played in the season opener before being shut down for the year due to the off the field issues that I don’t need to detail as any SPORTS fan, let alone a football fan knows all too well. Having a guy like AP in the backfield could alleviate some of those O-Line issues, but replace him with a rookie (McKinnon) and a goal line back (Asiata) and it becomes more apparent that there are problems up front. This is compounded even more when you consider our exciting return man/deep threat Cordarrelle Patterson had what we can only hope was the dreaded sophmore slump. Looking at the glass being half full, Patterson’s struggles have led to the emergence of wide receiver Charles Johnson, who has become Teddy’s favorite target.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)